Supertrend flip breakout
Supertrend is one of the most popular trend indicators among Indian traders, but its flips often come just before price turns back. This version adds a confirmation step. On 15-minute NIFTY futures bars with Supertrend(10, 4), a flip only arms a level, the high (or low) of the flip bar. The system reverses its position only when price trades through that level. It is always in the market and holds positions across days.How it trades
Results
PRE-BUILT · DEFAULTSWhere it made and lost money
In this test the system made money whenever NIFTY actually moved: trades held through a rise of more than 1% made ₹2,17,260 over 20, and through a fall of more than 1% ₹2,74,150 over 26. Trades held while NIFTY moved less than 1% lost ₹4,45,904 over 61, at an 18% win rate, which outweighed all the gains. Choppy entry days lost ₹4,19,000 over 45 trades, while trend days made ₹2,30,142 over 34. This is the classic trend-following profile: in a range, each Supertrend flip and break of the flip bar's extreme reverses the position just before price turns back, so a full futures lot is whipsawed again and again.
About this strategy
- Build 15-minute bars of the near-month NIFTY future from 09:15, joined across sessions and adjusted for the jump at each monthly roll.
- Compute Supertrend with a 10-bar ATR and a multiplier of 4. It flips when a bar closes through its band.
- On a flip up, mark that bar's high as the trigger; on a flip down, mark its low. A newer flip replaces an untriggered level.
- When a futures tick trades beyond the trigger, reverse: go long one lot (closing any short) or go short (closing any long).
- Until the trigger trades, the existing position stays on even if Supertrend has turned.
- On the monthly futures expiry, close at 15:15 and reopen the same side in the next month at the next open. An intraday mode instead squares off at 15:15 daily.
Why traders use it
A raw Supertrend flip can be triggered by a single close just past the band, which often reverses straight away. Waiting for price to break the flip bar's extreme demands follow-through before switching sides, which is meant to filter some of those false flips. Being always in means never missing a trend, and the stop-and-reverse structure needs no separate stop or target: the opposite signal is the exit. The 10/4 settings are wider than the common 10/3, aiming for fewer flips.
The year in plain words
On NIFTY futures from 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 with default settings, the strategy took 127 trades (including 12 monthly-roll segments) and won 39%, losing ₹87,304 before costs and ₹1,06,334 after ₹20 per order and bid-ask slippage. The swings were very large: the best trade made ₹77,480 and the worst lost ₹63,174, and the maximum drawdown reached ₹2,78,668. March alone lost ₹1,04,529, while April made ₹79,085 and December ₹56,591. The profit factor of 0.91 shows that the big trend-following wins did not quite cover the many reversals in sideways stretches.
What the settings do
Risks
- Always being in a full NIFTY futures lot means every overnight gap is taken in full, with no stop other than the reverse signal.
- Drawdowns approaching ₹3 lakh per lot are part of the record, far larger than the net result.
- In ranges, the system reverses repeatedly near turning points, compounding losses.
- Results depend heavily on a few large trend moves; missing one changes the year.
Who it suits
Trend followers with substantial futures margin and the tolerance to sit through deep drawdowns and long sideways stretches. It suits those who prefer a fully mechanical, always-in system to discretionary exits.
Questions traders ask
What is a Supertrend flip breakout?
Instead of acting as soon as Supertrend changes direction, the trader waits for price to trade beyond the high (for a flip up) or low (for a flip down) of the bar that caused the flip. Only then is the position reversed. This asks for follow-through before switching sides.
Is the Supertrend breakout strategy profitable on NIFTY?
Not in this backtest. On NIFTY futures from 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 it lost ₹87,304 before costs and ₹1,06,334 after ₹20 per order and bid-ask slippage, with statutory charges excluded. Past results do not guarantee future ones.
What does stop and reverse mean?
The system is always either long or short. The signal that closes a long is the same signal that opens a short, and vice versa. There is no separate stop loss or target; the opposite breakout does both jobs.
Which Supertrend settings are used?
A 10-bar ATR with a multiplier of 4 on 15-minute bars. That is wider than the common 10/3, so the line sits further from price and flips less often, at the cost of later reversals.