Day-of-week futures tilt
This calendar strategy tests whether one weekday tends to be better for NIFTY than others. By default it buys one lot of NIFTY futures at Tuesday's last print and sells it at Wednesday's last print, every week, with no stop or target. It can instead hold a chosen weekday's session only, or the weekend gap, long or short. Each trade is tagged with its distance from the weekly expiry so a weekday effect can be told apart from an expiry effect.How it trades
Results
PRE-BUILT · DEFAULTSWhere it made and lost money
Because the default holds from Tuesday's close, almost every entry falls on the NIFTY weekly expiry day, so this is as much an expiry-cycle test as a weekday one. In this test entries after nervous evenings, with India VIX above 14.5, made +₹1,32,802 over 14 trades with a 79% win rate, while calm evenings below 11.5 lost ₹5,341 over 13. Entries after a trend day made ₹1,19,940 over 16 trades and after a quiet day lost ₹32,275 over 18. Entry days that opened with a gap down made ₹1,09,499 over 8. The 10 holds in which NIFTY rose more than 1% made ₹1,58,958; the 8 in which it fell more than 1% lost ₹1,05,658.
About this strategy
- Choose a weekday (default Wednesday), a direction (default long) and a return window (default close to close).
- At the last print of the session before the chosen weekday, buy one lot of the near-month NIFTY future.
- Sell it at the last print of the chosen weekday's session. There is no stop and no target.
- If the entry session is a futures expiry day, the next month's contract is bought instead; if that is not available, the trade starts at the chosen day's open.
- The open-to-close window holds only the chosen day's session; the weekend window buys at the week's last close and sells at the next week's first print.
- Every trade is tagged with the weekday and the sessions left to the NIFTY weekly expiry, for comparing the two effects.
Why traders use it
Weekday effects, such as weak Mondays or strong Wednesdays, have been reported in Indian index data over different periods, though their sign has shifted over time. The appeal is that a calendar rule needs no forecast and can be tested cleanly. In recent years each weekday is also a fixed distance from the NIFTY Tuesday expiry, so a weekday effect can really be an expiry-cycle effect; tagging every trade lets traders check which one they are seeing.
The year in plain words
Holding NIFTY futures long from Tuesday's close to Wednesday's close from 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 produced 51 trades, a 59% win rate and ₹1,29,132 before costs, a profit factor of 1.59. Wins averaged ₹11,577 and losses ₹10,389, with the best single day making ₹59,800. April alone made ₹1,05,326, while March, July and September each lost over ₹25,000, and the drawdown reached ₹67,421. With only one round trip a week, costs took little: after ₹20 per order and bid-ask slippage it kept ₹1,14,414. One weekday over one year is a small sample.
What the settings do
Risks
- There is no stop loss, and the position is held overnight, so a gap down is taken in full; the worst trade lost ₹33,631.
- A single weekday tested over one year is a small sample, and weekday effects have changed sign in past periods.
- The chosen weekday is tied to the expiry cycle, so a change in expiry day could change the result entirely.
- Testing all five weekdays and picking the best one invites results that are just chance.
Who it suits
Traders curious about calendar effects who can hold one NIFTY futures lot overnight once a week, accept no stop loss, and treat the result as a research finding rather than a settled pattern.
Questions traders ask
Is there a day-of-the-week effect in NIFTY?
Studies of Indian index data have found weekday patterns in some periods, such as strong Wednesdays or weak Mondays, but they have shifted over time. Today each weekday is also a set number of sessions from the Tuesday weekly expiry, so a weekday pattern may really be an expiry-cycle pattern.
Is buying NIFTY futures for Wednesday profitable?
In this backtest, holding long from Tuesday's close to Wednesday's close each week from 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 made ₹1,29,132 before costs and ₹1,14,414 after ₹20 per order and bid-ask slippage, before statutory charges. The before-costs drawdown was ₹67,421. Past results do not guarantee future ones.
What is the difference between close-to-close and open-to-close?
Close-to-close includes the overnight gap before the chosen day, so it captures news that arrives after the previous close. Open-to-close holds only the day's own session. Comparing the two shows whether an effect comes from overnight moves or from trading hours.
Why tag trades with sessions to expiry?
Because each weekday sits at a fixed distance from the NIFTY Tuesday expiry, an apparent Wednesday effect may come from the post-expiry session instead. The tag lets the results be split by expiry distance to see which explanation fits.