Last half-hour momentum
Last half-hour momentum comes from research on US index funds showing that the market's move in the first half hour, including the overnight gap, tends to predict the direction of the last half hour. This version applies the idea to NIFTY futures: the return from yesterday's close to 09:45 sets the side, and the trade is held only for the final half hour, every day.How it trades
Results
PRE-BUILT · DEFAULTSWhere it made and lost money
The signal only pays when the morning's direction is still in charge at the close. Trend days that closed near their high or low made ₹51,906 over 67 trades, because a day that opens strongly one way and keeps going usually adds a little more in the final half hour. Choppy days that closed mid-range lost ₹25,912 over 63 trades, as the morning move had already reversed. Down days were the main source of profit: sessions that closed below their open made ₹73,324 over 120 trades, while up days lost ₹29,008 over 111. Calm evenings with VIX below 11.5 came before ₹34,235 of gains over 63 trades.
About this strategy
- Skip the first session after a futures expiry, where yesterday's close belongs to the old contract.
- At 09:45, measure the return of the near-month NIFTY future from the previous session's close.
- If it is positive, plan a long; if negative, plan a short. By default there is no minimum size for the move.
- Thirty minutes before the session close (15:10 since the close moved to 15:40), buy or sell one lot.
- Exit two minutes before the close; there is no stop and no target.
Why traders use it
Large traders who start adjusting positions in the morning often finish near the close, and hedgers rebalance late in the day in the direction the market has already moved. Both push the last half hour the same way as the first. The rule is about as simple as a systematic strategy can be: one reading in the morning, one trade near the close, no indicators. It is a well-known example of an intraday pattern, which makes it a common test case.
The year in plain words
On NIFTY from 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 the strategy traded 233 days, about 19 a month, each for 28 minutes. It won 53% with slightly larger wins than losses for ₹44,517 before costs, a profit factor of 1.22. After ₹20 per order and bid-ask slippage, it lost ₹15,329: the average trade made only ₹191 before costs, less than its round-trip cost. January and February made over ₹52,000 together, while November lost ₹15,022. The morning-to-close pattern showed up before costs but was too small to survive them.
What the settings do
Risks
- The average gain per trade is smaller than the cost of trading it, so costs decide the outcome.
- There is no stop, so a sharp late reversal is taken in full.
- Trading every day means long losing runs are normal, up to 7 in a row here.
- The pattern was found on US data and is weak there in later years, so it may not persist.
Who it suits
Traders who can place a futures order near the close every day, or automate it, and want a very simple rule. Because the edge is thin, it only makes sense for those with very low trading costs.
Questions traders ask
Does the first half hour predict the last half hour?
Research on US index funds found a small positive link: when the market rose from the prior close to the first half hour, the last half hour also tended to rise. In this NIFTY test the strategy won 53% of 233 trades before costs, which suggests a slight tilt rather than a strong pattern.
Is last half hour momentum profitable on NIFTY?
From 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 it made ₹44,517 before costs but lost ₹15,329 after ₹20 per order and bid-ask slippage, with a ₹29,568 drawdown before costs. Statutory charges would add to the loss. Past results do not guarantee future ones.
Why is the trade only held for the last half hour?
The idea is specific: the last half hour of trading tends to follow the morning's direction. Holding the position all day would add the noise of the middle of the session, which the research found unrelated to the morning move.
How did the 15:40 close change the timing?
The strategy reads each day's close from the calendar. Before 3 Aug 2026 it traded roughly 15:00 to 15:28; after the close moved to 15:40, it trades 15:10 to 15:38.