Prior-range Fib 61.8% buy
This intraday futures strategy draws Fibonacci levels on the previous day's range and buys when price climbs back above the 61.8% retracement. The thinking is that a market which dipped deep into yesterday's range and then recovers that level has buyers stepping in, and may travel back to yesterday's high. The stop sits at the deeper 78.6% level.How it trades
Results
PRE-BUILT · DEFAULTSWhere it made and lost money
This is a buy-the-dip rule, so the day's direction decided almost everything in this test. On the 39 trade days when NIFTY closed above its open, the strategy made ₹13,590 with a 46% win rate. On the 49 days that closed below the open it lost ₹57,665 and won only 16% of the time: the reclaim of the 61.8% level was just a pause in a falling session, and the nearby 78.6% stop was hit. Flat openings produced most trades and lost ₹47,857 over 72 of them. The only volatility bucket in profit was India VIX above 14.5 (₹5,726 over 19 trades), where bounces were larger.
About this strategy
- Take yesterday's high and low of the near-month future and measure the range between them.
- Mark three levels: 61.8% of the range below the high (entry), 78.6% below the high (stop) and the high itself (target).
- From 09:16 to 15:00, watch one-minute closes; buy one lot of the future when a close crosses up through the 61.8% level after the previous minute closed at or below it.
- Only one trade a day; days that never dip below the level are not traded, and the session after a monthly futures expiry is skipped.
- Exit at the 78.6% stop or at yesterday's high, whichever comes first.
- Close anything still open at 15:15.
Why traders use it
Fibonacci retracements are among the most widely drawn levels on Indian charts, and the 61.8% line is the one traders watch most. Using yesterday's range gives fixed, objective levels before the open, and the trade has a natural shape: a tight stop just below the reclaimed level and a target at an obvious resistance. On paper, one target can pay for two or three stops, which is the appeal.
The year in plain words
On NIFTY futures from 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 the strategy took 89 trades and lost ₹46,546 before costs, with a win rate of 29% and a profit factor of 0.70. After ₹20 per order and bid-ask slippage the loss grew to ₹68,398. The stop did most of the work: 55 trades hit the 78.6% level, only 10 reached yesterday's high and 24 were closed at 15:15. Average wins of about ₹4,255 did not make up for the number of losers. Only April to June 2026 were positive, with June the best month at ₹16,997, while January lost ₹16,316.
What the settings do
Risks
- The stop is only 16.8% of yesterday's range below the entry, so ordinary noise can trigger it.
- Losses cluster: the backtest's maximum drawdown before costs was about ₹66,550.
- Fills are assumed at the stop and target levels; fast moves can fill worse in live trading.
- Futures carry full point-for-point exposure, so a lot of NIFTY can move several thousand rupees in minutes.
Who it suits
Traders studying how a single, popular chart level behaves when tested mechanically, and who have futures margin and can manage an intraday position. The default results show a long losing stretch.
Questions traders ask
What is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement strategy?
It measures yesterday's high-to-low range and marks the point 61.8% of the way down from the high. When price dips below that line and then closes back above it, the strategy buys, betting on a return to yesterday's high. A stop goes at the 78.6% level.
Is the Fibonacci 61.8% buy strategy profitable on NIFTY?
Not in this test. From 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 on NIFTY futures it lost ₹46,546 before costs and ₹68,398 after ₹20 per order and bid-ask slippage, winning 29% of 89 trades. Statutory charges were not included. Past results do not guarantee future ones in either direction.
Why does the strategy skip the day after futures expiry?
Yesterday's range belongs to the contract that just expired, while today trades the next month, which sits at a different price. Using the old range would put the levels in the wrong place, so that session is not traded.
Can this be run on stocks?
Yes. The symbol setting accepts any F&O stock, and the levels are computed the same way from the stock future's previous range. Stock futures have wider spreads than NIFTY, which raises the after-costs drag.