Diwali Muhurat long
A calendar trade built around Muhurat trading, the short special session NSE holds on Diwali to mark the start of the new Samvat year. The default version buys NIFTY futures at the close of the last regular session before Muhurat and sells at the end of the Muhurat hour, betting on the festive optimism often said to lift the market. Two other versions hold through the month before Diwali, or only during the session itself.How it trades
Results
PRE-BUILT · DEFAULTSWhere it made and lost money
There is no market-condition evidence to speak of: the test window holds a single Muhurat session, so the default variant made one trade, held for about a day. That long lost ₹26,625 before costs. A seasonal rule like this produces one observation a year, which means no split by volatility, session type or trend can be judged, and even several years would leave only a handful of trades. The loss shows how the trade is exposed: it carries a full futures lot through the festive break and into a thin special session, so whatever happens in between is taken at the Muhurat price.
The same trades, split by the market conditions around each entry, before costs.About this strategy
- Detect the Muhurat session from the data: a session that starts after 12:00 and lasts less than 2.5 hours.
- Variant A (default): buy one lot of NIFTY futures at the last tick of the last regular session before Muhurat.
- Sell at the last tick of the Muhurat session.
- Variant B: buy 20 sessions before Muhurat and sell at the close of the last regular session before it.
- Variant C: buy at the first tick of the Muhurat session and sell at its last tick.
- If a futures expiry falls inside the holding period, close at 15:15 that day and buy the next month at the following session's open.
Why traders use it
Muhurat trading is a tradition: many investors place token buy orders for good luck, and market commentary often reports that the session ends higher more often than not. The pre-Diwali weeks are also linked with festive spending and positive sentiment. Traders turn these beliefs into simple rules to see whether the pattern holds when tested on real prices, and a futures long is the most direct way to express it.
The year in plain words
The test window from 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 contains just one Muhurat session, on 21 Oct 2025, so the default variant made a single trade. That long lost ₹26,625 before costs and ₹26,867 after ₹20 per order and bid-ask slippage. Diwali 2026 falls on 8 Nov 2026, after the window ends, so there was no second observation. One trade cannot confirm or reject a seasonal effect: it only shows that the festive long can lose, and by a sizeable amount for one lot.
What the settings do
Risks
- There is only about one observation a year, so any result is mostly luck rather than evidence.
- The long is held overnight and over the holiday break, exposing it to a gap at the Muhurat open.
- Muhurat is a thin, one-hour session, so its closing price can be far from a fair level.
- Futures need full margin, and one lot of NIFTY moves thousands of rupees on a modest change.
Who it suits
Traders curious about festival seasonality who want to see it tested on real prices, and who treat the result as a single yearly event rather than a regular income source. It needs futures margin and acceptance of overnight risk.
Questions traders ask
What is Muhurat trading?
Muhurat trading is a special one-hour session held on Diwali to mark the start of the new Samvat year. Its timing varies year to year; in 2025 it ran in the afternoon of 21 October. Many investors place small symbolic buy orders in it.
Does the Diwali Muhurat long make money?
In this backtest window, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026, there was only one trade, and it lost ₹26,625 before costs and ₹26,867 after ₹20 per order and bid-ask slippage. A single observation says very little, and past results do not guarantee future ones.
Why are there so few trades?
Diwali happens once a year, so each variant can trade at most once a year. The 2026 Muhurat session falls on 8 Nov 2026, outside this test window. Seasonal patterns like this need many years of data before any conclusion is meaningful.
What is the difference between the three variants?
Variant A holds the long from the last regular close into the end of Muhurat. Variant B rides the weeks before Diwali and exits before Muhurat. Variant C trades only the Muhurat hour, from its first tick to its last.